Economics

□ '텍스트 힙' 트렌드의 정의와 부상 배경 □ 관련 산업의 변화 □ 국내외 기업의 활용 사례 □ 금융권 적용 사례 □ 결론 및 시사점

We measure the real effects of private equity buyouts on worker outcomes by building a new database that links transactions to matched employer-employee data in the United States. To guide our empirical analysis, we derive testable implications from three theories in which private equity managers alter worker outcomes: (1) exertion of monopsony power in concentrated markets, (2) breach of implicit contracts with targeted groups of workers, including managers and top earners, and (3) efficient reallocation of workers across plants. We do not find any evidence that private equity-backed firms vary wages and employment based on local labor market power proxies. Wage losses are also very similar..

What is the role of gender in the serial founding of VC-backed startups? Despite robust evidence linking serial entrepreneurship to startup success, women comprise 13.3% of VC-backed founders but only 4% of those founding three or more startups. Using a novel design comparing men and women cofounders of the same startup, we estimate substantial gender gaps in subsequent funding outcomes on average and following failure or success of the current startup. We find these at both the extensive and intensive margins. For example, following failure, women are 22.5% less likely to found another VC-backed startup compared to their cofounders who are men. Among those who do found another VC-backed fir..

Using newly-collected data on the near-population of U.S. STEM PhD graduates since 1950, we examine who funds PhD training, how many graduates are trained in areas of strategic national importance, and the effects of public investment in PhD training on the scientific workforce. The U.S. federal government is by far the largest source of financial and in-kind support for STEM PhD training in America. We identify universities and fields where PhD training has a higher or lower intensity of government, industry, or philanthropic support, and the organizations and universities that fund and train the most PhDs in critical technology areas such as AI, quantum information technology, and biotechn..

Small businesses have long supplied a disproportionate share of major innovations in the United States. We review a centerpiece policy on this topic: the US Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. We trace its legislative history and summarize program evaluations over the past four decades. Using newly matched data on SBIR awards and venture capital investments into small businesses, we show that, despite often being compared to venture-backed businesses, SBIR-backed businesses pursue very different strategies. We use simple economic theories to motivate the SBIR program as a vehicle for the government to invest in small-scale, well-defined, but risky technologies that have large ..

We take a long, broad, and theoretically agnostic view toward the connection between building costs and house prices in the US housing market. We find that building costs have never had all that much explanatory power over US housing prices, but even the imperfect correlations of the past have weakened further in recent decades along multiple dimensions.

This paper develops a framework to quantify racial disparities in earnings and employment that are not plausibly due to differences in productivity. Over an employment cycle, employers learn about worker productivity and workers move to more productive and less prejudiced employers. I use implications of this behavior to match high-tenure Black and white workers on unobservables. I look at matched pairs who lose their jobs in a mass layoff. Gaps in earnings and separations between these workers in their next jobs are not plausibly due to differences in productivity. Using U.S. data, earnings differences between these matched workers are five log points, about a quarter of the racial earnings..

Culture shapes how policies are made and how people react to them. This chapter explores how culture and development policy affect each other. First, we provide evidence that cultural mismatch — specifically a mismatch between project manager background and the location of project implementation — is associated with the reduced success of World Bank projects. Second, drawing on historical and ethnographic work, we show that disregarding local cultural norms can undermine well-intentioned development policies. Third, we review economic research demonstrating that cultural practices systematically shape policy effectiveness, often leading to heterogeneous or unintended effects. Fourth, we ..

We leverage pronounced changes in the availability of public schooling for young children—through duration expansions to the kindergarten day—to better understand how an implicit childcare subsidy affects mothers and families. Exploiting full-day kindergarten variation across place and time from 1992 through 2022 and novel data on state-level policy changes, combined with a comparison of children of typical kindergarten age to older children, we measure effects on parental labor supply and family childcare expenses. Results suggest that families are responsive to these shifts. Full-day kindergarten expansions were responsible for as much as 24 percent of the growth in employment of mothe..

We propose a sufficient statistic for designing AI information-disclosure and selective automation policies. The approach allows for endogenous and biased beliefs, and effort crowd-out, without using a structural model of human decision-making. We deploy and validate our approach in a fact-checking experiment. Humans under-respond to AI predictions and reduce effort when presented with confident AI predictions. Overconfidence in own-signal rather than under-confidence in AI drives AI under-response. The optimal policy automates decisions where the AI is confident and delegates the other decisions while fully disclosing the AI prediction. Although automation is valuable, the benefit of assist..

Using Eurobarometer data for 21 Western European countries since 1973 we show the U-shape in life satisfaction by age, present for so long, has now vanished. In 13 northern European countries - Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the UK - the U-shape has been replaced by life satisfaction rising in age. We confirm these findings with evidence from the European Social Surveys, the Global Flourishing Survey and Global Minds. Evidence of change in the U-shape is mixed for Austria and France. In six southern European countries – Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain and Portugal - the U-shape was replaced by l..

Timely business-level measures of work from home (WFH) are scarce for the U.S. economy. We review prior survey-based efforts to quantify the incidence and character of WFH and describe new questions that we developed and fielded for the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). Drawing on more than 150,000 firm-level responses to the BTOS, we obtain four main findings. First, nearly a third of businesses have employees who work from home, with tremendous variation across sectors. The share of businesses with WFH employees is nearly ten times larger in the Information sector than in Accommodation and Food Services. Second, employees work from home about 1 day per week, on average, and busine..

Monetary policy transmits through broad financial conditions—interest rates, asset prices, credit spreads and exchange rates—rather than through the policy rate alone. Yet current frameworks remain anchored around r*, the neutral interest rate. We introduce FCI*, the neutral level of financial conditions that closes expected output gaps, within a framework where financial conditions and macroeconomic shocks drive economic activity with inertia. Conceptually, FCI* reflects macroeconomic developments rather than financial market valuations, making it more stable than r*, which responds to both macroeconomic and financial factors. We estimate FCI* using a two-equation model along the lines ..

We study how uncertainty propagates through production networks. First, we construct a highly disaggregated, forward-looking measure of industry-level uncertainty using option-implied volatility data for U.S. firms. Second, we identify the effects of higher uncertainty within industries, across the supply chain, and at the aggregate level. We find that heightened uncertainty in upstream industries (e.g., chemical manufacturing, iron and steel mills) behaves like a negative supply shock—raising prices and lowering employment across the production network. In contrast, greater uncertainty in downstream industries (e.g., automotive manufacturing, insurance carriers) behaves like an adverse de..

Using data on prescriptions for cholesterol-lowering drugs (statins), we study differences in the treatments chosen by Danish physicians for themselves versus for their patients. We estimate that physicians discount patient health benefit relative to their own, valuing the additional potency of a stronger statin by significantly more if it is for their own use. We exploit variation in expected coinsurance to estimate that moral hazard accounts for a modest share, no more than 15%, of this additional valuation. Statin-using physicians also respond more quickly to a patent expiration, suggesting greater effort to stay informed on drug classes they personally use.

Inspired by the Silicon Valley Bank run and building on Diamond- Dybvig (1993), we develop a model in which asset price fluctuations can trigger bank runs. Liquidation amounts to selling assets at their market price. Depositors can buy and hold the assets after paying an idiosyncratic cost. We characterize the equilibria. We introduce a withdrawal pressure function to distinguish between fundamental runs, driven by market price declines, and self-enforcing runs triggered by depositor panic. Deposit insurance can prevent self-enforcing runs but incurs losses during fundamental runs. Regulatory measures ensuring price resilience reduce run risks, but at the expense of depositor welfare.

In 2015, the City University of New York (CUNY) launched a new program— Accelerate, Complete, and Engage (ACE)—aimed at improving college graduation rates. A randomized-control evaluation of the program found a nearly 12 percentage point increase in graduation five years after college entry. Using this impact estimate and national data on earnings by gender, age, and degree status; we estimate incremental expected long-run benefits and costs for participants, as well as intergenerational effects for the children of participants, relative to “business as usual” for the control group. Our main estimate indicates net social benefits of more than $48,000 over a lifetime per participant f..

Using detailed product- and invention-level data from the pharmaceutical industry, we demonstrate that firms with particularly high-selling “blockbuster” products concentrate their development efforts on new products that both target the same customer segments and are more likely to be technically similar to existing blockbuster products. This behavior, driven by an expectation of the stickiness of demand for existing product offerings, limits firms' incentives to invest in entirely new products targeting different customer segments. Our findings offer insights into how blockbuster products shape firms' customer segment and innovation choices, with implications for understanding the dyna..

Very low household wealth, or net worth poverty (NWP), is the modal form of poverty for American children, yet little is understood about how it is experienced across childhood or its associations with children’s human capital accumulation. Using data from the 1999-2021 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on a cohort of children followed from birth to age 20, this study examines the influence of NWP exposure and duration across a child’s life course on high school graduation and college attendance. Findings show that through age 18, children experienced more frequent and enduring spells of net worth poverty than income poverty. NWP was negatively associated with high school gradu..