Economics

□ 서브컬처에서 메인 스트림으로: 30년의 전환 □ K-콘텐츠 성공의 구조적 배경 □ K-컬처의 성장공식 ‘K-플라이휠’ □ K의 미래와 제언

Export controls restrict trade to limit adversaries’ access to goods that contribute to military capability, but their effectiveness depends on how trade and production adjust across countries. We combine new data on U.S. export control classifications and licensing outcomes with a quantitative general equilibrium model featuring dual-use production, input-output linkages, and separate civilian and military final expenditure. We estimate large export and entry frictions from these controls. These effects are substantially smaller for U.S. exports to members of multilateral export control regimes (MECRs): the differential is equivalent to an export cost of 15 to 29 log points. Relative to a..

This paper examines the revenue and migration impact of the 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act, a one-time 5 percent tax on the worldwide net worth of individuals exceeding $1 billion. Using data from the Forbes Billionaire List, news reports detailing the residential real estate holdings of California billionaires, and public announcements of billionaire departures from the state, we estimate the behavioral response and associated revenue loss to this new tax using several different methodologies. Even before accounting for reductions in other tax bases such as the income tax, we estimate that the Act will collect approximately $30 billion (range $28 to 36 billion), less than a third of th..

We study the role of foreign ideas in U.S. innovation by constructing a directed “genealogy” of technologies from the full text of 13 million patents filed between 1887 and 2024. By tracing which earlier technologies appear in the founding patents of new ones, we recover a large-scale input–output network of technological recombination that identifies the foreign technologies that serve as inputs into innovation in the United States. We report four main findings. First, foreign ideas are pervasive: 54% of U.S. technologies build on at least one foreign input, and the most fertile U.S. technologies rely on foreign inputs most heavily. Second, foreign ideas have large causal effects on U..

Immigration affects natives through both labor markets and public budgets, yet these channels are usually studied separately. We combine them in a general-equilibrium model with search-and-matching frictions, skill-specific progressive labor taxes, capital taxation and public goods, calibrated to 17 OECD countries over 2015-2019. The welfare effect on natives of a one-percentage-point increase in immigrant inflows varies in sign and size across countries, hinging on immigrants' skill mix, immigrant-native wage gaps, resident unemployment, and tax progressivity. For inflows matching the skill composition of 2019-2024 arrivals, native welfare rises in 14 of 17 economies, and in most cases both..

We propose a general equilibrium model in which U.S. monetary policy affects global risk premia by revaluing the wealth of currency-mismatched arbitrageurs. Assuming their portfolios are mean-variance efficient, arbitrageurs must be short the dollar. A U.S. tightening thus erodes arbitrageurs' net worth and raises the global price of risk. We discipline this mechanism to rationalize the effects of U.S. monetary policy on international asset prices, and we quantify the associated macroeconomic spillovers and role of policy responses abroad. In a potential future with higher dollar interest rates, arbitrageurs' dollar funding and U.S. monetary policy spillovers are dampened.

States that delegate governance to local officials face a trade-off between the benefits of local knowledge and the costs of biased administrators. Can imposing federal standards discipline bias and improve uniformity? We study this question by examining the introduction of federal standards to apply for citizenship under the 1906 Naturalization Act. Using newly-digitized census records covering over five million immigrants and a 30-year period, we show that standardizing adjudication of citizenship applications resulted in rapid convergence of naturalization practices across cities. While naturalizations were around 30% higher in election years pre-reform, this electoral cycle disappeared a..

We study the optimality of human groundwater extraction from many of the world's 3,400 aquifers, where institutional or market failures may produce non-optimal extraction decisions. We use remote sensing and economic data to estimate a dynamic model of water extraction for each aquifer, recover the discount factor that rationalizes observed groundwater extraction, and compare it against Ramsey and market benchmarks. Three- to four-fifths of aquifers are extracted more rapidly than is optimal, decreasing aquifer present value by several percent, and creating trillions of dollars in present value welfare losses. Policies that guarantee users constant water quantities indefinitely, through subs..

We study equilibrium market structure in a model of credit-market competition with correlated or uncorrelated screening errors and endogenous screening technologies. A pool externality arises because rejected borrowers reapply elsewhere, so lenders’ screening and pricing choices affect competitors’ applicant pools. With independent errors, a single market segment emerges, with rates rising smoothly as lenders who choose better technologies lend to more adversely selected borrowers. With correlated screening errors, potentially stemming from similar AI systems and overlapping financial-sector data, ex-ante identical lenders instead specialize across qualitatively distinct segments, genera..

Gains from trade are typically calculated using a constant trade elasticity estimated from substitution across foreign countries. For general homothetic preferences, we show how to calculate these gains from the initial domestic expenditure share and the home-foreign elasticity function along a price path to autarky. While this function generally depends on the specific price path, under weak separability it does not. We provide conditions for its nonparametric identification and estimate sector-level elasticity functions using tariff changes implied by trade agreements. Across WIOD and OECD ICIO data, estimated home-foreign elasticities generally rise with domestic expenditure shares. Using..

Market power may arise not only from firms, but also from individual salespeople who can exploit informational advantages over consumers. We explore this phenomenon in the mortgage market by examining a Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac fee waiver targeted at lower-income first-time homebuyers. We estimate that mortgage intermediaries capture over 60% of $1.5 billion in total fee waivers during 2023–2024, rather than fully passing these savings through to borrowers. Pass-through varies substantially across loan officers: those with a track record of originating expensive mortgages (independent of lender pricing) pass through less than 20% of the waiver. Our evidence suggests that loan officers retain..

This paper investigates how the expansion of social insurance affects households’ accumulation of debt. Insurance can reduce reliance on debt by lessening the financial impact of adverse events such as illness and job loss. But it can also weaken the motive to self-insure through savings, and households’ improved financial resilience can increase access to credit. Using data on 10 million people and a quasi-experimental research design, we estimate the causal effect of expanded insurance on household debt, exploiting ZIP-level heterogeneity in exposure to the staggered expansions of one of the largest US social insurance programs: Medicaid. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in a..

We characterize equilibria in a canonical class of economies with endogenous production networks, showing that log-prices equal a min-max over networks of a primitive affine function of log-productivities. This formula captures how resilience and fragility interact: the "min" reflects resilience from substituting suppliers, while the "max" reflects fragility from complementarity-induced rigidity. Applying these results, we generalize Hulten's theorem, finding that local Domar weights are generally insufficient to describe propagation of even small shocks. Moreover, we characterize how microeconomic volatility affects GDP, finding that smooth changes in Domar weights overstate its adverse eff..

The return covariance matrix is widely assumed to have an eigenvalue cliff: a few large eigenvalues, then a bounded bulk, as in the approximate factor structure of Chamberlain and Rothschild (1983). This premise underlies factor tests, principal-component methods, and large-covariance estimation. These methods estimate moments from returns pooled across states, so they necessarily view a conditional world unconditionally. We show that, generically, this view removes the cliff: a conditional model with a few factors is, unconditionally, an infinite-factor model in which infinitely many eigenvalues diverge. This holds for the characteristic-managed portfolios that machine-learning methods trad..

Credit constraints and other demand distortions are pervasive in lower-income contexts. A model of clean technology adoption shows that demand distortions can increase the welfare gains from green subsidies. This arises through two channels: shifting the marginal adopter toward higher private and social benefits, and increasing demand elasticity. We test this by cross-randomizing purchase price subsidies, usage subsidies, and access to an interest-free loan for a US$84 induction stove among 2,134 charcoal users in Kenya. Usage subsidies of 75% have a precise zero effect on adoption and usage. Purchase price subsidies, however, generate large welfare gains. Credit constraints raise the subsid..

Expanding access to financial services may not be enough to develop markets in low-income settings: providers also need to be held accountable to consumers. We test this in a field experiment across 195 rural Sierra Leonean communities, upgrading Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) into mobile money and bank agents, cross-randomized with a monthly consumer feedback mechanism. Upgrading expands access, but feedback drives large operational improvements (+20.5 pp, 85%), particularly in privacy and consumer protection, raising usage and revenues. Upgraded VSLAs also show higher savings digitization and higher incomes, evidence that disciplining agent actions benefits not only consumer..

How leaders allocate their limited time and attention is an important question in economics. This paper constructs and analyzes a novel data set covering the daily calendars of three Federal Reserve Chairs, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell, containing more than 20,000 calendar entries. We document several patterns. First, all Fed Chairs spend more than 30% of their documented meetings with Fed staff, highlighting the crucial role of economists in the Fed's decision process. Second, interactions with the media became more frequent during Bernanke's tenure and remained important until the end of Powell's tenure. Third, Powell held significantly more meetings with lawmakers than bo..