Economics

□ 인터넷의 관문으로 부상하는 AI □ 슈퍼에이전트에 대한 이해 □ 주요 사례 (1) 세일즈포스 (2) 라쿠텐 (3) 월마트 (4) 오픈AI·구글·앤스로픽 □ 전망 및 시사점

Many regression analyses use observations that are correlated within uncorrelated clusters and/or are correlated in distance or other spatial measure. Such data are often positively correlated. This reduces the information content of an additional observation compared to the default of independent observations. Consequently, failure to adjust standard errors for such correlation leads to confidence intervals that are too narrow, and to hypothesis tests that over reject. In this paper we first provide a general framework. We then focus on inference when observations are correlated within cluster and uncorrelated across clusters. We detail cluster-robust inference methods, particularly methods..

This article presents inference for regression with data that are correlated across some measure of distance; most often geographic distance. Failure to appropriately adjust standard errors can lead to confidence intervals that are too narrow, and hypothesis tests that over-reject. If spatial correlation exists within region but not across regions then one can use cluster-robust inference methods presented in the companion paper, Cameron and Miller (2026). In this paper we focus on methods when spatial correlation is dampening in distance. Then the standard inference method is the spatial HAC of Conley (1999). This method does not work well when spatial persistence is high, and alternative i..

Alcohol use, transactional sex, and gambling carry significant health and economic consequences. We conducted a randomized controlled trial in Kenya to assess whether these behaviors could be altered with a savings intervention that provided lottery-based interest, goal-setting support, and savings reminders. Over 24 months, the intervention increased formal savings and assets, financed primarily by lower spending on alcohol, transactional sex, and gambling. It also reduced hazardous drinking by 26 percent and intimate partner violence by 15 percent. HIV/STI incidence declined by 8 percent, though this was not statistically significant. Savings interventions can simultaneously boost financia..

A critical tension in global governance is that trade agreements have evolved largely in isolation from climate policy. This paper shows that the two domains generate systematic cross-externalities: larger gains from trade are associated with greater climate externalities imposed on partners, while linking carbon taxes to trade agreements produces distributive externalities that undermine the balance of trade concessions. To address this tension, we present a framework to integrate harmonized carbon pricing into the WTO subject to institutional and political-feasibility constraints. We explore two linkage designs. The first is a centralized Climate Fund, where all members apply a common dema..

We provide evidence on the extent to which food assistance affects spending on sugary items by studying the Pandemic Electronic Benefit Transfer (P-EBT) program, which provided funds to families of children who lost access to free and reduced-price school meals due to COVID-19 pandemic school closures. Leveraging state-level variation in the timing of P-EBT disbursements using a stacked difference-in-differences identification strategy with NielsenIQ Consumer Panel data, we find that P-EBT disbursement was associated with a 16-percent increase in weekly spending on sugary items among SNAP-eligible households with school-aged children. Notably, this increase exceeded the percentage increase i..

We estimate the causal effects of a financial windfall on consumption, savings, and wage earnings using linked administrative data on a large sample of Canadian lottery winners. Using separate linkages of lottery winners to income tax records and credit bureau data, we estimate how lottery winnings affect consumption measured through credit card spending, savings through financial asset accumulation and debt repayment, and wage earnings from tax records. We then examine how these responses vary across the income distribution. We find that high-income individuals allocated a larger share of lottery winnings to savings and leisure, while low-income individuals spent a larger share on consumpti..

We study how information about school quality affects families’ choices and how scaling up the intervention changes its impact. In a randomized trial in Chile, we offer families a short video and a personalized school report card before they enroll their children. Treated families choose schools with higher test scores and value added. Among families reached before enrollment, treated children score about 0.2 standard deviations higher in fourth grade, with positive but less precise estimates on later assessments. We embed the experimentally identified demand shift in a structural model of school choice and competition to study equilibrium effects at scale. Capacity constraints and central..

When does bad news stick? This paper shows that the persistence of media sentiment depends not only on whether news is good or bad, but also on what the news is about. Using the complete Wall Street Journal archive from 1990 to 2025, we construct monthly positive and negative sentiment indices for twelve economic topics and estimate topic-specific sentiment dynamics. Bad-news innovations generate larger cumulative responses than positive-sentiment innovations in every topic, indicating that negativity asymmetry is a broad feature of media sentiment. But the size of this asymmetry varies sharply across topics. The bad-minus-positive persistence gap is largest in security and human rights, fir..

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly provide economic and financial advice. We develop a microeconomic framework for understanding this role. We prove that an LLM acts like a voting rule: each input text is an election, possible continuations are candidates, and output probabilities are vote shares derived from the training corpus. Such rules can generate Condorcet cycles, implying intransitive pairwise recommendations and potential money-pump exploitation. Using ChatGPT-4o, we identify millions of cycles in pairwise investment choices among S&P 100 firms. Our theorems establish the voting interpretation on the training data and support its use off-sample. We also show that correcting c..

Short-term return reversal is one of the most robust asset-pricing anomalies, and is commonly linked to liquidity provision. We decompose individual firm stock returns into two distinct components: SYS, the component of returns that can be linked to systematic risk and public information releases; and an orthogonal residual RES. The RES component reverses, while the SYS component exhibits continuation. Moreover, the residual reversals are highly asymmetric: positive residual shocks reverse much more slowly than negative shocks. A return factor based on asymmetric idiosyncratic reversal subsumes the idiosyncratic volatility factor and a broad set of other short-horizon anomalies. Our findings..

An advertiser in a second-price auction sees what it paid, not the rival bids that supposedly set the price. Akbarpour and Li (2020) show that an auctioneer can therefore charge a winner up to its bid undetected. The Federal Trade Commission alleges that Amazon’s advertising auctions, described as second-price, used soft reserves that did this. We ask whether repeated bidding exposes such charges and what adjustment does to welfare. If each charge equal to the bid is flagged, the soft reserve is exposed quickly, however much the advertiser trusted the description. If reports show only win rates and expected charges, it is indistinguishable from a second-price auction at any fixed bid: an a..

Does education lead to political activity? We find that a large, early 20th century school construction program, the Rosenwald schools, led to more NAACP branches in the rural South starting in the early 1940s, i.e. prior to the classic U.S. Civil Rights Movement. Branch growth was stronger where Jim Crow occupational segregation prevented Black men from realizing some of the economic gains of their education. Our findings lend support to theories emphasizing that economic context can act as a critical mediator in determining whether human capital causes political engagement.