Economics

□ 홍콩은 어떻게 글로벌 금융 허브가 되었을까? □ 흔들리는 아시아 1위 글로벌 금융 허브의 위상 □ 글로벌 금융 무대의 중심으로 재도약하는 홍콩 □ 중국과 세계를 잇는 슈퍼 커넥터 홍콩의 미래 전략 □ 시사점

We causally test alternative theories of expectation formation. Using a randomized information experiment we show overreaction is a key feature of individuals' return expectations, and individuals' response to the price-earnings ratio is opposite to the academic consensus. Our evidence is inconsistent with standard models of expectation formation but subjective mental models that deviate from objective benchmarks can jointly explain the updating behavior in the experiment, the link between individuals' prior perceptions and expectations, and the heterogeneity of updating. Conditional on their beliefs, individuals' sensitivity of equity shares in a hypothetical portfolio choice experiment is ..

This paper documents stylized facts about the "Great Reallocation" in US supply chain trade following the 2018–2019 tariff shocks and the April 2025 Liberation Day announcements. We find that: (i) The US has decoupled from China but not from the world overall. (ii) US imports diversified mainly among its top-20 partners, rather than expanding to new source countries. (iii) Local linear projections confirm ongoing declines in China's import shares, with compensating increases from Vietnam, Mexico, and Taiwan. (iv) Most of this shift occurred along the product-level intensive margin, though extensive margin adjustments became more pronounced for Vietnam and India from 2021-2024. (v) After a ..

All states adopt systems to surveil political activists. How do they decide whom to watch and why? We study the logic of state surveillance using the first complete individual-level database of those monitored by a state — 152,000 Italians born between 1816 and 1932, encompassing both democratic and authoritarian regimes. We focus on education: exploiting a discontinuous expansion in primary schooling in municipalities above a population and age threshold, we show that cohorts exposed to more years of school experienced an uptick in surveillance. The effect is largest for working classes, who were monitored for longer periods, subjected to harsher measures, and disproportionately targeted ..

Forecasts about research findings affect critical scientific decisions, such as what treatments an R&D lab invests in, or which papers a researcher decides to write. But what do we know about the accuracy of these forecasts? We analyze a unique data set of all 100 projects posted on the Social Science Prediction Platform from 2020 to 2024, which received 53,298 forecasts in total, including 66 projects for which we also have results. We show that forecasters, on average, over-estimate treatment effects; however, the average forecast is quite predictive of the actual treatment effect. We also examine differences in accuracy across forecasters. Academics have a slightly higher accuracy than no..

We construct representative security-fund-level longitudinal data for the United States using regulatory filings of portfolio holdings from Form N-PORT. We validate our dataset by comparing coverage and composition to official statistics from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States (formerly known as the Flow of Funds) and Treasury International Capital (TIC) System, and to micro-level commercial datasets. We showcase an application by replicating and updating Maggiori, Neiman and Schreger (2020) findings on home currency bias using N-PORT instead of commercial fund holdings data. Our results confirm that N-PORT data offer a comprehensive, reliable, and public source ..

This paper examines a large-scale randomized evaluation of the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) program in 531 Peruvian rural primary schools. We use administrative data on academic performance and grade progression over 10 years to estimate the long-run effects of increased computer access on (i) school performance over time and (ii) students’ educational trajectories. Following schools over time, we find no significant effects on academic performance but some evidence of negative effects on grade progression. Following students over time, we find no significant effects on primary and secondary completion, academic performance in secondary school, or university enrollment. Survey data indicate..

We use high-frequency retail microdata to measure the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices. By matching daily prices from major U.S. retailers to product-level tariff rates and countries of origin, we construct price indices that isolate the direct effects of tariff changes across goods and trading partners. Prices began rising immediately after the broader tariff measures announced in early March and continued to increase gradually over subsequent months, with imported goods rising roughly twice as much as domestic ones. Our estimated retail tariff pass-through is 20 percent, with a cumulative contribution of about 0.7 percentage points to the all-items Consumer Pric..

This paper investigates the consequences of regime change for both migration and foreign direct investment (FDI) by employing quasi-natural experiments that exploit external and internal shocks to democratic institutions. It compares evidence from Europe, which was afflicted by the “Syrian Shock”—an external institutional stress testing administrative and fiscal capacity—and Israel, which experienced the “Corruption Shock”—an internal credibility crisis that eroded judicial independence and policy predictability. These two shocks provide a natural experiment to examine how weakening democratic institutions influence both capital mobility and people mobility.

We use comprehensive tax data to study how saving behavior responds to the Health Savings Account (HSA) “catch-up” contribution provision, which raises HSA contribution limits for individuals aged 55 and older. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find a sharp increase in contributions among those previously near the limit and smaller increases among unconstrained savers. Induced contributions are not immediately withdrawn and do not appear to crowd out retirement savings. Responses are strongest among payroll contributors and long-term savers. However, married couples do not appear to coordinate their HSA behavior to take advantage of the complex spousal rules governing catch-up ..

We compare the lending technology of direct lenders, banks, and finance companies using a unique data set on secured borrowing by the universe of U.S.-based private middle market firms. The borrowers of direct lenders are distinct relative to those of traditional lenders; they are younger, more likely to be in intangible capital industries, and more likely to be located in the biggest cities in the United States. These differences reflect the focus of direct lenders on private equity-owned firms; direct lenders have negligible impact in industries and cities with low private equity presence. The lending technology of direct lenders is distinct from banks: they have almost no branch network, ..

A billion people live more than two kilometers from an all-season road, the vast majority of whom reside in emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs), where the absence of paved roads hinders growth and development. Consistent with this shortage, we estimate that the median social rate of return to installing an additional kilometer of two-lane highway in EMDEs is 55 percent—roughly eight times the social rate of return on private capital in the US. The size and precision of the estimates vary widely across countries. But the eightfold excess social return on roads is, nevertheless, five times larger than the excess financial return on stocks in developing countries that once cataly..

We examine the impacts of assignment to STEM vs. humanities-focused curricula in Romania’s high school system. We apply a regression discontinuity design to administrative and survey data to estimate effects on educational pathways, desired careers, and non-cognitive outcomes. An overarching theme of our findings is the malleability of students to what they study. Assignment to STEM increases STEM college enrollment and technology or engineering career intentions by 25 pp. Exploring mechanisms, we find that STEM assignment changes students’ self-perceived academic abilities and their preferences over academic subjects and job tasks. STEM assignment is risky for low-achieving students, re..